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China Policy Institute: Analysis

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China’s unloading of FX reserves, spillbacks, and quantitative tightening

Written by Miriam L. Campanella.

China’s economic strength often is referred to $3 trillion in foreign currency reserves. Piled up since the 90s with the start of the new economic policy, the composition of this wealth is made up by 70 percent (or $2.3 trillion)  in U.S. dollar assets.  Yet, , if China  were  planning for a sell-out, the Fed’s zero-bound interest rate and a  depreciating dollar,  would  earn  China  very little of these riches. Continue reading “China’s unloading of FX reserves, spillbacks, and quantitative tightening”

Why China is serious about becoming the global leader on climate change

Written by David Tyfield.

Xi meets Trump: how charisma and personality can ensure peace and prosperity

Written by Kerry Brown.

For all the focus on high strategy and grand geopolitical narratives, at the end of the day summits between global leaders are largely lost or won according to the personal chemistry that exists between the principle players.

Ronald Reagan famously got along with the USSR’s Mikhail Gorbachev, bringing about major non-proliferation deals. Richard Nixon, despite coming from an utterly different cultural and political background, enjoyed a strange bond with the Chinese premier Zhou Enlai in the early 1970s, pushing forward the historic US China rapprochement. So if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping get along, it could mean peace and prosperity for not just the US and China, but the world in general. Continue reading “Xi meets Trump: how charisma and personality can ensure peace and prosperity”

Learning to live with a nuclear North Korea?

Written by Nick Bisley.

North Korea has been on a long march to acquire a usable nuclear weapon. Since 2011, when Kim Jong-un replaced his father at the head of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the pace of that march has quickened markedly.

Contrary to claims made by Nikki Halley, the new US ambassador to the UN, North Korea’s leader is not crazy – he has decidedly rational motives. Kim wants nuclear weapons to provide security from a world that he believes threatens North Korea’s existence. Continue reading “Learning to live with a nuclear North Korea?”

China’s anti-ship missiles threaten an arms race in the western Pacific

Written by James Samuel Johnson.

China has a new generation of stealthy, supersonic anti-ship missiles, and the US is clearly worried about them. Former US rear admiral Eric McVadon described them as the “strategic equivalent of China’s acquiring nuclear weapons in 1964”. He wasn’t exaggerating.

The missiles can evade US missile defences and undermine the effectiveness of the carrier strike groups the US operates in the Western Pacific. By deploying them, China could be changing the future military balance in Asia, pulling the centre of power away from Washington and its allies and towards Beijing. If the US can’t sustain its monopoly on the development of precision missile systems, it will struggle to project its current level of power in the western Pacific – and its forward forces and bases in the region will be increasingly vulnerable. Continue reading “China’s anti-ship missiles threaten an arms race in the western Pacific”

Chinese responses to the Trump administration.

Written by Baogang He.

In this short article, I will discuss China’s response to the Trump administration. There exists a diverse range of Chinese opinions, however, I will only discuss the official, not popular, responses. I will focus on three issues – war and peace, China’s new world leadership role, and China’s efforts to deepen Asian regionalism. Continue reading “Chinese responses to the Trump administration.”

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