China Policy Institute: Analysis


sino-US relations

High-tech China-US arms race threatens to destabilise East Asia

Written by James Samuel Johnson.

After decades of peace, East Asia is racked with tension – and its two dominant military powers are jostling for supremacy in an extremely alarming way.

The US and China are accumulating increasingly advanced military systems to enable and enhance the assets they already have. With the Trump administration’s foreign policy still unclear and China’s aspirations to regional supremacy as ambitious as ever, they are racing to deny each other the upper hand by rolling out new military assets. Continue reading “High-tech China-US arms race threatens to destabilise East Asia”

Xi meets Trump: how charisma and personality can ensure peace and prosperity

Written by Kerry Brown.

For all the focus on high strategy and grand geopolitical narratives, at the end of the day summits between global leaders are largely lost or won according to the personal chemistry that exists between the principle players.

Ronald Reagan famously got along with the USSR’s Mikhail Gorbachev, bringing about major non-proliferation deals. Richard Nixon, despite coming from an utterly different cultural and political background, enjoyed a strange bond with the Chinese premier Zhou Enlai in the early 1970s, pushing forward the historic US China rapprochement. So if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping get along, it could mean peace and prosperity for not just the US and China, but the world in general. Continue reading “Xi meets Trump: how charisma and personality can ensure peace and prosperity”

Nuclear War on the Korean Peninsular: What the U.S. expects from China

Written by Jan Ludvik.

International politics is full of crises and conflicts, yet there are few regions as troubling as the Korean peninsula. Korea has been in a state of international crisis since at least the 1990s, and a new peak of the crisis may still be ahead. Since the discovery of the foundations of North Korea’s indigenous nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, Washington has probed numerous options to convince or coerce Pyongyang into putting its nuclear program on hold. Yet, more than two decades later, North Korea’s nuclear program is only more advanced. Suggesting a new possible showdown, the U.S. Secretary of State recently remarked that the ‘policy of strategic patience has ended’. A military response to North Korea’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile threat is back on the table. Continue reading “Nuclear War on the Korean Peninsular: What the U.S. expects from China”

Reining In Pyongyang’s Nuclear Ambitions: Washington and Beijing’s Common Interests

Written by Gregory J. Moore.

China and the United States have much in common as they look at the regime in North Korea. They agree North Korea should not have nuclear weapons. North Korea is a very unpredictable, ‘naughty’ regime, and neither state trusts Pyongyang to keep its word. North Korea has a history of assassinations, terrorist attacks, blackmail and war initiation that make it a very bad candidate for nuclear weapons. While Beijing doesn’t like to say it openly, Chinese leaders understand this. North Korea is also a proliferation threat. Its history of deals selling and transferring nuclear facilities, material and/or know-how to Syria, Libya, Iraq, and Pakistan make this clear. It was only the Israeli air force which prevented Pyongyang from finishing the nuclear reactor it had been building for Syria in 2007. Moreover, North Korean nuclear weapons could spark an arms race in Northeast Asia. In fact, they already have, as the installation of the US THAAD system in South Korea and Japan’s turn toward a stronger military since the first North Korean missile over Japan in 1998 demonstrate. This could be only the beginning if Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons become fully operational. Continue reading “Reining In Pyongyang’s Nuclear Ambitions: Washington and Beijing’s Common Interests”

Creative Ideas for Conflict Resolution in the Taiwan Strait Must be Based on Facts

Written by J. Michael Cole.

In an article published in the Diplomat on 4 April, Dr. Liu Yawei, director of the China Program at the Carter Center and founding editor of the U.S.-China Perception Monitor, proposes five areas in which U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, could cooperate after their groundbreaking meeting in Florida later this week. Continue reading “Creative Ideas for Conflict Resolution in the Taiwan Strait Must be Based on Facts”

Learning to live with a nuclear North Korea?

Written by Nick Bisley.

North Korea has been on a long march to acquire a usable nuclear weapon. Since 2011, when Kim Jong-un replaced his father at the head of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the pace of that march has quickened markedly.

Contrary to claims made by Nikki Halley, the new US ambassador to the UN, North Korea’s leader is not crazy – he has decidedly rational motives. Kim wants nuclear weapons to provide security from a world that he believes threatens North Korea’s existence. Continue reading “Learning to live with a nuclear North Korea?”

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